Turkey Futures, Loan Performance, Tepid Inflation

As someone that loves turkey leftovers (porridge, ramen, pasta, tacos) I’ve never had a problem buying/eating a larger. This year we will likely see an oversupply of turkey and lower turkey prices after peak season.

Rates – ended the week where they started with some fluctuation in response to Pfizer’s vaccine announcement (upward pressure) as well as the alarming increase in Covid cases (downward pressure). Rates are down roughly 1% from this time last year.

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Jobs – the number of people filing for unemployment for the first time this week dropped to 709K approximately 3.5X pre-covid levels. Continuing claims also dropped nicely but it’s worth noting that many folks that dropped off regular unemployment benefits are now on PEUC (Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation) and that number increased.

Loan Performance – Corelogic released their loan performance report and deliquencies are up. The number of people 120+ days past due is the highest since Feb. 2014. The foreclosure rate is still incredibly low and will likely remain that way for some time due to moratoriums and equity levels.

Rents – are up 2.7% across the US.

Inflation – The CPI decreased from 1.4% to 1.2%. The tepid inflation is attributed to the spike in covid cases in October. Low inflation – while it can be a negative indicator for the economy – is good for mortgage rates.

Mortgage Application volume decreased 0.5% last week. Refinances are up 67% and purchases are up 16.5% on a year over year basis.

Forbearance – the share of mortgage loans in forbearance decreased 0.16% to 5.67% as of Nov. 1st. 2.8M homeowners are still in forbearance plans.

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