Home Sales Soar & Jobless Claims Continue

Rates – mortgage rates decreased slightly this week after increasing noticeably last week. Rates are down 3/4% from this time last year.

Jobs – the number of people filing for unemployment for the first time increased this week and bumped above the 1M threshold. If you add the number of people filing for unemployment on a continuing basis (14.8M) to the number of people claiming PUA (Pandemic Unemployment Assistance – contract workers who normally don’t qualify for unemployment insurance) the unemployment rate is at roughly 17% of our workforce.

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Home Sales – increased by a whopping 25% from June to July – the largest one month increase on record. This is on top of a 20% increase from May to June and in the face of historically low supply. Year over year sales are up nearly 9% and the median home price is up 8.5%

Trade – the cass freight index increased by 4.8% last month showing that more goods are being transported. On a year-over-year basis shipping is down about 13.1%.

Applications – the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that application volume declined 3% from the previous week. Purchase application volume increased by 1% and is up 27% year over year.

Forbearance – the share of mortgage loans in forbearance came down for the 9th consecutively week and as of 8/9 is at 7.2%. For conforming loans (Fannie & Freddie) this number is now sub 5%.

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