Corona vs SARS, Strong Jobs Report, Home Appreciation

Coronavirus death toll is approaching the near 800 killed by SARS in 2002 & 2003. The estimated global economic impacted of SARS was $40B. 17 years Later Chinese economic output has gone up from $1.7T to $14T (8x) and its share of global trade is at 12.8% compared to 5.3% in 2003.

“China today accounts for about one-third of global economic growth, a larger share of global growth than from the U.S., Europe and Japan combined,”

Andy Rothman – Economist @ Matthew’s Asia

Rates – increased very slightly this week as the 10 year US treasury bounced back up. They ended the week near historic lows.

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Jobs – another strong jobs report was released for January showing 225K job gains. Inspite of these gains there as a slight uptick in unemployment from 3.5% to 3.6%. Weekly earnings also ticked up by 0.2% to 2.5% increase year-over-year showing wage inflation (bad for mortgage rates).

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Appreciation – CoreLogic is forecasting homes will increase 5.2% over the next 12 moths (0.1% lower than the previous report). A 5.2% Gain an a $300,000 home is an increase of $15,600 in value.

“Moderately priced homes are in high demand and short supply, pushing up values and eroding affordability for first-time buyers. Homes that sold for 25% or more below the local median price experienced a 5.9% price gain in 2019 compared with a 3.7% gain for homes that sold for 25% or more above the median.

Frank Nothaft – Chief Economist CoreLogic

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