Fed Considers Climate, Appreciation, Rates Climb

The Fed – looks to be considering how policies built around climate change will impact productivity and long-run economic growth and the implications for their ‘neutral level of real interest rate’ or target rate. Under the Community Reinvestment Act banks are obligated to meet needs of local communities, especially low-to moderate income communities that are particularity vulnerable to climate change.

Based on these disclosures, the CDP estimates that the 500 largest companies by market capitalization are exposed to nearly $1 trillion in risk, half of which is expected to materialize in the next five years. A majority of the reporting companies integrate climate risk into their business strategies and their broader risk-management frameworks

Rates – bumped up this week in response to reports that existing tariffs on both sides of the China/US trade war would be canceled. Over the last 30 days the 10 Year US Treasury Note developed an upward trend line.

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Appreciation – the CoreLogic report for September which, indexes values on individual homes over time, showed a 3.5% increase nationwide average increase over the previous 12 months. They are forecasting a large increase of 5.6% over the next 12 months.

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Demand – over the next 3 years the number of people turning 33 continues to increase which is the current average age of a first time home-buyer. The cost of smaller/entry-level homes will increase more rapidly as the demand for these homes rise.

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