New Stimulus, Strong Equity, Light Inflation

$1.9T in Stimulus includes:
$1,400 to individuals meeting requirements
$300 additional weekly unemployment benefits extendeduntil Sept 6th, gig workers can qualify.
Student loan forgiveness not taxable through 2025!
Child Tax Credit is now more generous increasing as much as $3,600 per child.

Rates – Increased again this week continuing the 2 month trend. Rates are down approximately 3/8% from this time last year.

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Jobs – while initial claims and continuing claims both declined this week the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Claims & Pandemic Emergency Claims (programs for folks that don’t normally qualify for unemployment) both increased by over 1M there is still nearly 20.1M people receiving unemployment benefits of some type. Now that pandemic unemployment assistance has been extended it will be interesting to see if this number comes back up.

Loan Performance & Equity – 5.8% of loans are 30 or more delays delinquent. As a reminder approximately 2/3rds of homes have mortgages. Of these currently 0.3% are in foreclosures proceedings. The CoreLogic Equity Report showed that Homeowners with Mortgages saw their equity increased by 16% year over year. Homes with negative equity are down to 2.8%. 5% appreciation moving forward would push that number down to 2.4%

Mortgage Application volume decreased by 1.3% from the previous week. Year over year purchases are up 2.4% and refinances are down 43% (first decline in 2 years).

Inflation – the Consumer Price Index is up 1.7% year over year, if you strip out the more volatile food and energy prices the core reading is at 1.4% year over year.

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