1. Going below the ‘natural rate’ of unemployment could spark an inflationary escalator. even Fed Chair Powell has commented on how the relationship between unemployment & inflation has been zero.
  2. Globalization is good for everyone – except our blue collar workers.
  3. Large budget deficits cause the government and private sector to compete over selling bonds driving interest rates up – a surplus of capital flow from foreign investors into our treasury bonds has destabilized this theory.
  4. Higher minimum wages hurts workers – over the past 20-30 years empirical data has shown that while some people do get hurt by minimum wage increase, the # of beneficiaries far outweigh the# of folks that get injured.
10 Year US Treasury Note

Rates – Mortgage rates and the 10 Year US treasury yield moved sideways this week trading in a narrow range for the past 7 days.

Jobs – the number of people filing for unemployment dropped again this week coming in 13,000 lower (better) than expectations. Employers are holding on to their workers.

Appreciation – the price of single-family homes with conforming loans increased 5% over the last 12 months and 0.1% from April to May.

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