Dollar Store Nation, Rates Flat, Portland Wage Growth

There are over 30,000 Dollar stores in the US more than Walmarts, Mickey D’s and CVS combined. This year 1 will open every 6 hrs. This story shows a battle between a determined city-councilor elected to bring a grocery store to her community of 20,000 that was throttled by 10 dollar stores. She felt it was the primary cause of life expectancy in her district being 12 years shorter than a neighboring town.

Rates – have been relatively flat the past 30 days. Normally you would expect a strong BLS job report to bump rates – let’s break that down.

Jobs – while a strong jobs report came out this morning showing the lowest unemployment figure since 1969, mortgage backed securities didn’t reactive negatively. Hourly earning are up but weekly earnings (which give a better read on actual take home $$) are down and the labor force participation rate (% of people actually working) decreased. Unemployment numbers improved because the number of people actively participating in the workforce dropped.

Appreciation – the Case-Shiller home price index tends to be the most accurate (but dated) home value index because it tracks values on same individual homes over time. It shows further moderation in appreciation for February down 0.2% to 4.0% nationwide. It also shows how metro markets can very significantly which is why it’s important to work with local experts.

Portland Metro – in Multnomah county 2018 job growth fell to 1.8% from 2017’s 3.3%. Payroll rose a whopping 6.8%, the highest increase since 2006. Employers are holding on to their employees. Also worth noting: Washington county payroll is now 2/3 of Multnomah county.