$100 Bill, Single Family Construction Strength, Job Update
Currently there is about $2T in US paper money in worldwide circulation, roughly $200B more than last year. There are more $100 bills than $1 bills in circulation. Does the $100 bill make the cost of doing illegal business too low, and is it too easy for the ultra-rich to store cash reserves and limit […]
Duels, Gambling, & Finance, Home Appreciation, Jobs
John Law – wins in a duel in London and is convicted of murder. He escapes from prison, flees the country, and arrives in France. There he leverages his understanding of statistics to earn a small fortune gambling, which he builds into a large fortune by creating a paper money system and giving birth to […]
Consumer Trends, Rates Inch Up, Home Sales on Fire
In addition to purchasing more groceries, consumer buying patterns have impacted other non-obvious sectors. Sales are up on cigarettes, used cars, energy, camp supplies, and fake meat. Rates – moved up slightly this week as the 10 Year US Treasury increased for the 3rd consecutive week. Rates are down 3/4% from this time last year. […]
Home Sales Soar & Jobless Claims Continue
Rates – mortgage rates decreased slightly this week after increasing noticeably last week. Rates are down 3/4% from this time last year. Jobs – the number of people filing for unemployment for the first time increased this week and bumped above the 1M threshold. If you add the number of people filing for unemployment on […]
Retail Sales, Refi Fees, Rates Increase
Retail Sales – improved to higher than pre-covid levels. Electronics and appliances for home remodels led the way in July. Clothing & gasoline sales also increased significantly. Rates – bumped up this week after steadily decreasing for the last 70 days. The increase was minor but the 10 Year US treasury and Mortgage Backed Securities […]
Location? Jobs, Rent, Appreciation
Housing Boom – suddenly the mantra location, location, location doesn’t seem as relevant when: many people are working remotely, most schools are going virtual, and everyone wants more space. Redfin site traffic is up 40% since the pandemic and pending sales are at historic highs. The traffic to listings that are in towns with populations […]
GDP Contracts, Rates Improve, Appreciation Strong
GDP – the headline figure for the worst GDP report on record was -33%, does that mean that 1/3 of our economy evaporated in one quarter? The report showed that we produced 9.5% less in Q2 than Q1. If we continue on this rate for an entire year, then the economy would contract by a […]
Extended Stimulus, Unemployment Claims, New Homes Selling
Brief conversation with Gary Cohn, former executive of Goldman Sachs and former advisor to President Trump. When asked what he would advise on the economy: ‘We need an all-hands-on-deck virus stop methodology. That would be the most important thing we could do right now because instead of going through this cycle of stopping and starting…Once […]
-$37 Barrels, Rates Improve, Freight Down
The price of oil has fallen dramatically since the pandemic – from $60 a barrel in January to negative $37 per barrel on Monday. Suddenly oil companies and speculators (investors who buy in large quantaties hoping to sell for a higher price) needed to store a massive amount of unsellable, hazardous product. In some cases […]
Student Loan Secondary Market, Jobs Update, Strong Home Sales & Appreciation
Many of us wonder why rates on student loans rates are much higher than the market rates for cars, mortgages, or HELOCS and why you can’t re-finance student loans without moving them to a private bank and losing many of the hardships benefits or repayment options. Here’s a brief story of someone who sued Navient […]