Mortgage Rates and the price of Mortgaged-Backed Securities worsened this week and remain at the worst levels we have seen since October 2024. The conflict in Iran, oil prices, and inflation continue to negatively impact rates which are higher from this time last year by about 0.875%
Jobs – the Bureau of Labor & Statistics released its September Jobs Report which showed that 29,000 jobs were created, a number much lower than estimates of 90,000. The previous two months were also revised lower. The household survey showed the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. After the release of the jobs report, the odds of a Fed rate hike on October 28th collapsed from 64% to 26%.
Inflation – the Dallas Fed released their Trim Mean Inflation report and that decelerated from 2.3% to 2.2%. Core PCE was reported at 3% year over year while core CPI was at 2.4%.
Rents – Apartmentlist released their Rents Report which showed that new rents declined 0.1% in September, the first decline since January. This is typical for September. Year over year rents are down 0.4%.
Home Values – Case Shiller released their home price index for July which showed that home values rose 0.12% during the month. Values are up 1.9% year over year, a slight increase from last months’ number of 1.6%.
Mortgage Applications to purchase homes fell 4% last week and are down 14% year over year. Refinances declined 9% and are down 56% from last year. Adjustable Rate Mortgages are now comprising 10% of transactions.
Oil – Crude oil futures are down to 89.54 (down 3% from last week). In September that average price of gas per gallon was $4.33 the highest ever September recording (all-time record was $5.02 June 2022).