Mortgage Rates – moved up this week in response to the escalating conflict in Iran. Geopolitical instability typically moves money into the bond market, often called ‘a flight to security’ and is good for rates. So far, this conflict has seen the opposite reaction, with oil price inflation from depleted oil supply causing deterioration in the bond market. Approximately 20% of the World’s oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz. While it is 21 miles wide, the shipping lanes are only 2 miles wide. Rates are down about 0.75% from this time last year.
Jobs – the BLS Jobs Report showed 92,000 job losses, which was more than the anticipated 59,000. December and January reports were also revised lower by a combined 69,000 jobs. If we look back over the last 12-months we are seeing about 13,000 new jobs per month – not a strong number. Unemployment ticked up from 4.3 to 4.44% and the average duration of unemployment hit a 4-year high at 25.7 weeks.
Home Values – Cotality released their January Home Price Insights report which showed that home values declined by 0.1% nationwide. They also reported that home values are up 0.7% year over year. They are forecasting an increase of 0.7% next month and 4.4% over the next year.
Mortgage Applications to purchase homes increased 6% over the previous week and are up 10% year over year. Refiannce applications jumped 14% and are up 109% year over year.