Mortgage Rates and the price of Mortgaged-Backed Securities (MBS) worsened marginally for the second consecutive week. Rates remain near 3-year lows and are down by 0.75% from this time last year.
Inflation – the BLS released their Personal Consumption Expenditures Report for both October and November. Both the headline and the Core readings fell from 2.8% in September to 2.7% in October and then rose back to 2.8% in November. Overall this is a fairly good report for inflation
GDP – the BLS released their final report for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q3 which showed 4.4% annualized growth in the quarter. It’s possible that the EV tax credit expiration prompted vehicle purchases. The current annualized GDP rate is 2.5%, which is fairly strong, and a strong Q4 will push that up higher.
Pending Sales – the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their pending home sales report for December which fell 9.3% month over month. Year over year sales are down 3%. This breaks a long streak of slow increase with November seeing the highest sales pace in nearly 3 years. December is historically a slow month and often impacted by weather.
Mortgage Applications to purchase homes rose 5% last week and are up 18% year over year. Refinances increased 20% last week and are up 184% year over year. Refinances make up 62% of application volume.