Mortgage Fraud has captured headlines in 2025 with prominent politicians in the limelight but the Cotality report for Q2 shows only a 1.4% year over year increase, with fraud happening in 1 of 116 applications. Data does show, however, that a particular segment is seeing a large increase with investment and multifamily transaction, particularly with 2-4 units properties where 1 in 27 transactions showed fraud indications.
Mortgage Rates – improved this week as the price of Mortgaged-Backed Securities continues to climb. Rates are better by 1/8% on most programs from this time last year and the best position we have seen since September of 2024.
Jobs – the BLS reported that Initial Jobless Claims, which measures folks filing for unemployment for the first time fell 5,000 to 229,000, a relatively low figure. Continuing claims, which measures individuals still looking for work came in around 2M – when you adjust that number for seasonality it is one of the highest since 2021.
Inflation – the BLS reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose 0.2% in July as expected. Year over year inflation remained at 2.6% which is in line with market estimates. The Core rate, which is the Fed’s main focus, rose 0.3% and year over year it is up 2.9% . The three month core rate run increased from 2.5% to 2.9%, while the 6 month run is down slightly from 3.09% to 2.95%
Rents – Apartment List released their monthly rent report which showed rental prices fell 0.2% in August and are down 0.9% year over year. Apartment List tracks new rents which make up roughly 50% of the market. This should be trickling over to inflation reports and help keep those numbers down.
GDP – the BLS reported that GDP increased at an annualized rate of 3.3% during q2 of 2025. These numbers may be bolstered by tariffs and large last minute orders. If you average with q1 it is closer to 1.4%.
Mortgage Applications to purchase homes rose 2% last week and are up 25% year over year. Refinances declined 4% but remain up 19% year over year.