Mortgage Rates – improved this week to their best levels since April. The price of Mortgaged-Backed Securities jumped up in response to a lack luster jobs report. Rates are unchanged from this time last year.
Jobs – the BLS Jobs Report reported only 73,000 jobs created in July, weaker than estimates of 110,000. The raw figures showed 1.07M job losses, but it was seasonally adjusted. The prior two months of reports were also revised lower by a combined total of 258,000! Average revisions have been 77,000 this year (double last year) so it is expected this report will be revised to negative job growth. Unemployment rose from 4.1% to 4.2% on a rounded basis. The U-6, or all-in unemployment rate, rose from 7.7% to 7.9%.
Inflation – the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), rose 0.3% in June. Year over year inflation is up 2.6%. The core rate, which strips out food and energy rose 0.3% and is up 2.8% year over year.
Rents – Apartment List reported that rental prices were flat in July and down 0.8% year over year. Vacancies rose to 7.1%, the highest level since 2017.
Home Values –the Case Shiller Index, generally considered the gold standard of appreciation, showed that home prices fell 0.3% in May (on a seasonally adjusted basis). Home values are up 2.3% year over year, which is a moderation from the previous clip of 2.7%.
Fed Meeting – the Federal Reserve Board met this week and left rates unchanged as expected. Fed Governors Waler and Bowman dissented in favor of a 25bp cut, which is the first time in 32 years that two Governors dissented at a meeting.
Mortgage Applications to purchase homes declined 6% last week and are up 17% year over year. Refinances declined 1% last week but are up 30% year over year.