Happy Holidays! The cost of the Thanksgiving meal for 10 declined again this year but remains 19% higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019. (how am I supposed to get the free turkey at WinCo if I don’t spend $125?) While most items saw price declines, stuffing, whipping cream, rolls, and cranberries became more expensive. Regionally, the West was the priciest at $67, followed by the Midwest at $59, and the Northeast and South at $57.
Mortgage Rates improved nicely over the previous 2 weeks as the price of Mortgaged Backed Securities responded favorably to inflation data, fed comments, and the monthly Jobs report. Rates are down roughly 0.5% from this time last year.
Jobs – the BLS Jobs Report showed 227,000 job creations, largely ‘bounce-backs’ from strikes and storms. However, 111,000 full-time and 268,000 part-time positions were lost, with job growth seen only among 16-19-year-olds, likely due to seasonal hiring. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%.
Inflation – the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) is the Fed’s favorite inflation index, and it rose 0.2% in October. The year over year numbers are up 2.3%. If you strip out food and Energy, the ‘core index’ rose 0.3% and is up 2.8% year over year.
Mortgage Applications – to purchase homes rose 6% last week while refinance application volume declined 1%. The year over year numbers are skewed because of the timing with Thanksgiving week.