How Japan is trying to solve the problem of shrinking villages – in 1955 the Village of Nanmoku was home to 11,000 people. Today there is less than 1,500 and 2/3rds of them are over the ager of 65. It is estimated that Japan could lose 40% of its municipalities over the next century which is more than 740 cities and towns. The village mayor believes they can stabilize the population at 800 over the next 15-20 years. Currently Japan’s government offers families about $6,800 to relocate from Greater Tokyo to rural villages with the stipulation of staying in the area for a minimum of 5 years. Japan’s population shrank by 800,000 last year and the total population of 125M is predicted to halve by the end of the century. Some folks think that abandoning these places and creating carbon sinks and more spaces for wildlife is the right thing to do for the environment.
Mortgage Ratee – improved this week as the Price of Mortgaged Backed Securities increased to the best levels we have seen since Feb. 2023. Rates are up down approximately 1% from this time last year.
Jobs – the BLS Jobs Report came in shy of expectations by 18K jobs. There was also 86K in negative revisions over the previous 2 months. During 2024 the BLS has negatively adjusted their original numbers by a total of 365,000 or about 20%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% and are up 3.8% year over year. Average weekly hours increased from 34.2 to 34.3 and total weekly earnings increased 0.7% for an annual increase of 3.5%. While the headline unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2% we see that 438K full time jobs were lost while 527K part time jobs were gained. The U-6 unemployment which accounts for folks who would prefer to be working full time rose from 7.8% to 7.9%
Mortgage Applications to purchase homes rose 3% last week but remain down at 4% year over year. Refinance activity decreased by 0.3% but is up 94% compared to this time last year. Refinance applications make up 46% of application volume.
Oil Prices dropped to under $70 a barrel the lowest since June 2023. This should positively impact inflation.