Over half of Americans now believe our economy is in recession even though GDP has continued to increase since the 2020 recession. Additionally, nearly 50% of Americans believe unemployment is at a 50-year high when the unemployment rate is near historic lows. Don’t call it a ‘vibecession’, especially when 70% of Americans believe inflation is increasing, when it has been decelerating for over a year now. Red Lobster, who serves 64M customers a year, closed many of its 719 worldwide locations after filing Chapter 11 and agreeing to sell itself and turn over management to lenders. This chain started in Florida in 1968 has been ailing for a while and dug itself a deeper hole 10 years ago when it sold to a private equity firm which promptly sold of the chain’s real estate and forced Red Lobster to start paying rent. It is estimated that 17.7M Americans use marijuana on a daily or nearly daily basis, which surpassed the number of near daily alcohol users for the first time in the On Drug Use and Health survey’s 50-year history.
Mortgage Rates – moved sideways this week as the price of Mortgaged Backed Securities recovered after a rocky start to the week. Rates are up approximately 0.25% from this time last year.
Home Values – Case Shiller’s Home Price Index, considered the gold standard for home appreciation, showed that home prices increased 0.3% in March, rising to another all-time high. Home values are up 6.5% year over year a consistent reading from last month’s report.
Loan Performance – loans that are 30 days late or more declined but 0.2% over the last year and remained the same over the past 30 days. Foreclosures continue to remain near historic lows at 0.3%.
Inflation – the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showed that inflation rose 0.3% for the month and remained at a 2.7% year over year increase. The core rate, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.2% last month and remained up 2.8% year over year. Overall, we aren’t seeing much progress in inflation, but it is also not rising.
Rents – Apartmentlist’s Rent Report showed that new rents rose 0.5% but year over year rents are down 0.8% – a trend that has been negative since last August. The national vacancy rate is at 6.7%.
Mortage Applications to purchase homes decreased 1% last week and are down 10% year over year. Refinances declined 14% last week and are up 12% year over year.