Educated Mortgage Advice

Groundbreaking! Inflation, SFRents, and Builder Sentiment

Groundbreaking – after over 4 years of planning and sourcing funds we broke ground on Voyagers’ Village a 41-unit affordable housing project that features the first Community space dedicated to the Micronesian Islander Community in the Continental US (that we know of). The apartment will feature 6 units that will be held for folks who make 30% or less of the AMI and 35 units that will be affordable to folks who make 50% of the AMI. The space is geared toward families with only 3 of the units designed as 1 bedrooms, 13 units as 3 bedrooms, and 27 as 2 bedrooms. We are 6 weeks into our 15 month construction cycle building nearly 45,000 sqft (7,000 is community space). There will also be a playground, barbecue area, outdoor covered lanai, and a pig-roasting pit. If you would like to take a tour of the construction, please reach out!

Mortgage Rates moved sideways this week as the price of Mortgaged-Backed Securities (MBS) ended the week near where they started. The two-month positive trend is currently on pause. Rates are down 1/8% from this time last year.

Summary of Tax Update for 2025. I’m not a tax advisor and I cherry picked the highlights. Some big changes below:
– Increased Standardized Deduction $15,750 / $31,500
7 Permanent tax brackets 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, and 37%
– $6,000 Increased deduction for seniors (65 and older), decreases at $75K/$150K
– State and Local Tax 2025-2028 (SALT) deduction raised to $40,000 for incomes under $250K/$500K this is big for Oregonians and might change whether you itemize or not.
– Overtime and Tip pay Deductions 2025-2028 benefits phase out at $150K/$300K
– Overtime deduction capped at $12,500/$25,000
– Tip income deduction capped at $25,000
– 1099-K reporting threshold – entities are no longer required to send you a 1099-K form if your total payments are over $20,000 and you received over 200 transactions
– Child Tax Credit (CTC) increased slightly to $2,200 per child, phases out at $200K/$400K
– 529 Expansions: $20,000 can be used to pay for K-12 expenses (up from $10K)
– Car Loan Interest Deduction 2025-2028
– up to $10,000 in qualified interest on a new car with a loan
– Vehicle must have ‘final assembly’ in the US and VIN number is tracked. Benefits decrease at $100K/$200K income
– EV tax credit repealed for vehicles acquired after sept 30 2025
– Residential energy credits repealed, effective 2025

Single Family Rents Cotality released their Single Family Rent Index which reported that rents rose 1.1% in May (typically a strong month) and are up 3.1% year over year.

Inflation – both the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index showed relatively mild numbers this week, especially in the core rates, which strips out food and energy, and that helped Mortgage-Backed Securities.

New Construction – the NAHB reported that builder sentiment continues to remain low at 33, well below healthy levels of 50. Single Family starts declined significantly and completions declined 15% as well to a 1.3M unit annualized pace. Household formations have averaged an annualized 1.8M over the past 5 years so our building is not keeping pace. Lack of supply will continue to support prices.

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