China’s Luxury Liquor Indicator – China’s has been producing alcohol for over 9,000 years and baijui, a clear liquor typically distilled from fermented sorghum, is the national liquor of choice. Of the 10 most valuable spirit companies in the world 6 of them are baijiu companies. Kweichow Moutai, one of the giants, has a market cap of $250B which is 2X AB InBev’s (Budweiser) the largest brewing company in the US. These baijiu companies are considered bellwether stocks and often serve as a benchmark for how the boarder Chinese stock market it is performing. Moutai, once the most valuable stock traded onshore in China, is down nearly half since its high in 2021. Laojiao is down more than half in the same time period. This shows continued weakness in the consumer economy in China which doesn’t bode well for the near future.
Mortgage Rates increased very marginally this week and remained in the best territory we have seen since March. Rates are similar to where they were this time last year.
Jobless Claims – the department of labor reported the jobless claims are rising nationwide and 24 of the 50 states have claims that are higher year over year (47% of the population). When we look back at June only 11 States (22%) of the population were showing a year over year increase in jobless claims.
Rents – Core Logic released their Rental Report for the month of April and it showed that single family rents are up 3.2% year over year. While multi-family rents have dipped single-family rents remain strong.
Retail Sales – the US Census bureau released their monthly report on retail sales showing flat sales in June
Shipping – Cass freight released their monthly shipping report and it showed that shipments declined 1.8% in June to a 4-year low.
Mortgage Applications – to purchase homes fell 3% last week and are down 14% year over year. Refinance volume increased 15% last week and are up 37% year over year. Refinance application now make up 39% of all applications.