Thanksgiving Inflation, Loans Perform, New Homes Sell

The average cost of Thanksgiving increased 20% from 2021 and is up 37% from 2020. After remaining flat for a decade, prices at the grocery store have gone up significantly the past 2 years. Prices on most items increased between 8% to 26% year over year. The largest increase was in stuffing mix (69%) and the sole item that decreased in cost was fresh cranberries (down 14%).

Mortgage Rates – improved slightly this week as the price of Mortgaged Backed Securities (MBS) improved. This is the second consecutive week prices have remained well above their previous negative trend. Rates are up approximately 3.5% from this time last year.

Loan Performance – Core Logic reports that 2.8% of mortgages are 30 or more days delinquent which is down over 1% from this time last year. Loans in foreclosure is near a multi-decade low at 0.3%. During the housing crash delinquency rates were six times higher.

New Home Sales (a measurement of signed contracts on new homes) rose 7.5% in October at a 632,000 annualized pace. On a year over year basis sales are down only 5.5% with higher rates, inflation, and tighter inventory. While there is currently 8.9 months of new construction available only 61,000 (13%) are actually completed so of completed new construction there is only 1.2 months’ supply.

Mortgage Applications to purchase homes increased 3% last week and are down 41% year over year. Refinance applications increased by 2% last week but are down 86% year over year.

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