Economy of Nails, Inflation Hot, Loans Perform

In 1810 nails made up nearly 0.5 percent of our country’s GDP, the modern equivalent of personal computer purchases or air travel. Like in “Little House on the Prairie” nails were a big deal! The advent of manufacturing and electricity have made nails expendable but you might be surprised that their value has increased 100% recently due to material and supply chain issues.

Mortgage Rates – increased again this week as mortgage backed securities declined sharply for the second consecutive week. Rates are up approximately 3/4% from this time last year.

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Jobs – the number of people filing for unemployment for the first time rose slightly over the last week.

Cass Freight Expenditures Index December 2021
Cass Freight Index

Inflation- shipping expenditures reached a new high and are up 44% year over year. The Producer Price Index is up 9.7% on a year over year basis and the Fed’s Beige booked showed every district is reporting wage pressured inflation – as much as 10% in some areas.

Loan Performance – on a year over year basis delinquencies are down significantly from 6.1% to 3.8%. The number of people seriously delinquent on their monthly mortgage payment (90+ days late) is down to 2.2%. The portion of mortgaged homes in foreclosure is at 0.2% (remember that roughly 1/3 of homes in the US are owned outright) which means that roughly 1 in 750 homes is in foreclosure.

Mortgage Applications to purchase homes rose 2% from the previous week but are down 17% year over year. Refinance application numbers remained steady week over week but are down 50% on a year over year basis.

The Zillow & Pulsenomics Home Price Expectation survey for Q4 2021 was released. The survey polls 100 top US economists and the average estimate for home value increase in 2022 was 6.6%

Lock ’em if you Got ’em – the FHFA (conforming loans) announced they will increase their pricing adjustments for second homes (vacation homes) effective April 1st. Some lenders have already priced this in. We will be updating our pricing on second homes for 30 day locks on February 7th. The new pricing will be more in line with investment properties and will take a significant hit when you are putting 10% down.

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