JOLTS, Inflation, Loans Perform

The September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that 4.4 Million people quit their jobs over the last 12 months and there are more than 10M open jobs in the US. There are many reasons people are leaving their jobs including: fears of covid, lack of childcare, retirement, and some folks are quitting because they saved enough money during the pandemic to take time off. In the restaurant world over 6% of the workforce quit in September. Another theory is: the labor market is strong people feel they will be re-hired anytime (possibly at a higher wage) so if they wanted to take a month or two to enjoy life they feel emboldened to leave their current diggs.

Rates increased this week after the Consumer Price Index report showed a higher than expected inflation increase of 6.2% year over year. Rates are up approximately 1/2% from this time last year.

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Jobs – the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time declined by 4,000 to 267,000 individuals, the lowest since the pandemic. Levels are nearing pre-pandemic levels. There are approximately 2.57M folks receiving some type of unemployment benefits.

Inflation –the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.9% in October to 6.2% If you strip out the more volatile food and energy prices, the index rose 4.6% (core rate)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.6% in October and is up 8.6% year over year. The core rate is up 6.2% over the last 12 months.

Loan Performance – 30+ day delinquencies are down to 4% nationwide. 2.6% of loans are seriously delinquent (90+ days late. Only 0.2% of homes with loans are in foreclosure. Remember that 1/3 of homes in the US are owned free and clear and do not have mortgages.

Mortgage Applications – to purchase homes increased 3% from the previous week. Year over year they are down 4%. Cash buyers are up. Inventory is down 13% and prices are up nearly 20% year over year. Refinances were up 7% from the previous week and are and are down 28% year over year.

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