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Rates – ended the week where they started as Mortgage Backed Securities continue to trade in a narrow range between the 25 & 50 day moving averages. The 3 month trend looks favorable for mortgage rates in the short term. Rates are down 1/4% from this time last year.


Jobs – the headline figures showed large gains in jobs (200 was a big number pre-covid) and a drop in unemployment. Non-farm hourly earnings increased 0.5% to $30.33 in May. Weekly earnings increased 0.5%. Hours remained flat for most sectors except for strong gains in manufacturing sector where overtime hours rose from 0 to 3.3. The all in unemployment rate is close to 10.2%

Appreciation – the Core Logic Home Price Index showed a whopping 2.1% increase in home values during April and a year over year gain of 13% – the largest gain since Feb. 2006. If you purchased a $400,000 home in April 2020 it would now be worth over $452,000. Core Logic is forecasting a year over year growth of ony 2.8% in the next 12 months. This seems laughable in light of April’s gains and reminds me of when they predicted -6% appreciation this time last year.

Mortgage Application volume decreased by 4% from the previous week. Purchases are down 2% year over year. Inventory is down 20% from this time last year and 50% percent from 2 years ago. Cash buyers are currently representing 25% of transactions.

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