Oscar Woes, Rates Improve, Bid Over Asking

The 8 best picture nominations have brought in a combined $35M at the boxoffice this year – what would normally be an unimpressive number for an individual nominee. In 2020 nominees earned $750M in North America and $1.3B overseas (much after nominations were announced). Viewership has declined to 23.6M viewers after hovering between 32-44M for a decade.

Rates – improved slightly this week as Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) continued their 4-week upward trajectory. They are now trading above their 50 day moving average. Mortgage rates are down 1/4% from this time last year.

Homes Sales – the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for march showing a dip from the previous month but a year over year increase of 12.3% in sales. Most news outlets are pointing to the median home price being at a record high of $329K up 17% year over year – remember that the median home price can be volatile, especially when the supply for lower priced homes is drastically reduced (sales down 25%) and million dollar + homes are selling like hotcakes (up 108%).

Bid Over AskRedfin reported that 56% of their offers are facing competition nationwide, 34.4% of buyers are paying above asking, nearly 18% are waiving appraisal contingencies & 13% are waiving inspections or financing contingencies. In 2012 I purchased a home in Portland for $210,000. It only appraised for $185K but we liked it & paid 14% over market value. At the time it seemed really risky to me (I was making $13 an hr and hadn’t even purchased a car yet) but 9 years later it has paid off! In the illustration above I’ve used the average of the Zillow and Redfin automated valuations to determine a value. Based an estimated 5.3% year over year appreciation if someone were to purchase our home for $50,000 over ‘current value’ – or 11% over ‘asking price’ – they would make their investment back in 22 months based on a projected 5.3% year over year appreciation (last 12 months was over 10%). If you would like me to share this tool with your partners or clients let me know!

Mortgage Application Volume – increased by 9% from the previous week – purchase applications increased 6% and are up 57% year over year (this time last year much of the country was on lock down). Refinance applications increased 10% from last week but are down 23% year over year. Refinance volume accounts for 60% of applications – down from a high of 75% last year.

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